Numbers
The Numbers
DAQO trades at $29.50 — less than half its $65 book value — because the market sees a polysilicon producer burning cash through the worst commodity downcycle in the industry's history. The numbers confirm that the losses are real and accelerating (Q1 FY2026 revenue collapsed to $27M). But they also reveal a fortress balance sheet — $1.9B cash, zero debt — that gives DAQO years of runway. The single metric that will rerate or derate this stock is polysilicon ASP: every $1/kg above breakeven translates to roughly $120M in incremental annual gross profit at normalized utilization.
Snapshot
Price (Apr 2026)
Market Cap ($B)
Book Value / Share
Cash ($B) / Zero Debt
Price / Book
EPS (FY2025)
Revenue FY2025 ($M)
Net Income FY2025 ($M)
Quality Score and Fair Value data not available for this company.
Revenue & Earnings Power
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LINE 2: ... 2018 as year, 302 as revenue, 81 as op_income order by year union all
^
LINE 2: ... 2018 as year, 302 as revenue, 81 as op_income order by year union all
^Revenue peaked at $4.6B in FY2022 — driven by polysilicon prices above $30/kg — and has fallen 86% to $665M in FY2025. Operating income turned negative in FY2024 and stayed there. The trajectory from $3B operating income to -$270M operating loss in three years illustrates the extreme operating leverage of a high-fixed-cost commodity business.
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LINE 2: ... 32.5 as gross_mg, 26.9 as op_mg, 12.6 as net_mg order by year union all
^
LINE 2: ... 32.5 as gross_mg, 26.9 as op_mg, 12.6 as net_mg order by year union all
^Gross margins swung from +74% to -21% — a 95-point swing. This is not a business with pricing power; it is a price-taker in a commodity market.
Quarterly Revenue — Recent Direction
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LINE 2: ..., 1280 as revenue, 814 as gross_profit order by sort_key union all
^
LINE 2: ..., 1280 as revenue, 814 as gross_profit order by sort_key union all
^Q3-Q4 FY2025 showed a glimmer of recovery — revenue rebounded to $245M and $222M with the first positive gross profits since Q1 FY2024. But Q1 FY2026 collapsed to just $27M revenue with a -$139M gross loss, suggesting the recovery was seasonal, not structural.
Cash Generation — Are The Earnings Real?
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LINE 2: ... 2018 as year, 39 as net_income, 96 as op_cf order by year union all
^
LINE 2: ... 2018 as year, 39 as net_income, 96 as op_cf order by year union all
^During profitable years, cash conversion was excellent — FY2022 CFO/NI was 99%, and FY2023 CFO exceeded NI by 2.5× due to working capital release. In FY2025, the company eked out $50M in operating cash flow despite a -$216M net loss, thanks to $240M in depreciation and $56M in SBC — non-cash charges that cushion actual cash burn.
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LINE 2: ... (select 2018 as year, -48 as fcf, -143 as capex order by year union all
^
LINE 2: ... (select 2018 as year, -48 as fcf, -143 as capex order by year union all
^DAQO spent $3.7B on capex from FY2019-FY2023, expanding from 35k MT to 305k MT. That expansion binge is over — FY2025 capex dropped to $173M (below depreciation of $240M), and the company has no announced new capacity plans. FCF was -$123M in FY2025, a dramatic improvement from -$794M in FY2024.
Capital Allocation
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LINE 2: ..., 0 as dividends, -118 as capex, 18 as sbc order by year union all
^
LINE 2: ..., 0 as dividends, -118 as capex, 18 as sbc order by year union all
^DAQO repurchased $611M in shares during FY2022-2023 — good timing at sub-$40 prices but bad capital allocation in retrospect, as that cash would be valuable now. SBC was outsized at $307M in FY2022 (6.7% of revenue), declining to $56M in FY2025 (8.4% of revenue — worse as a percentage due to revenue collapse). No dividends have ever been paid.
Balance Sheet Health
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LINE 2: ..., 52 as cash, 228 as net_debt, 567 as equity order by year union all
^
LINE 2: ..., 52 as cash, 228 as net_debt, 567 as equity order by year union all
^DAQO eliminated all debt by FY2021 and accumulated $3.5B in cash by FY2022. The cash pile has since declined to $1.9B as operating losses and residual capex consume reserves. Equity remains at $5.9B — the $3.4B PP&E base and $155M in intangibles still carried at cost, implying zero impairment despite running at 40% utilization.
The gap between book value ($65/share) and stock price ($29.50) implies the market expects significant impairment of the manufacturing base. If DAQO wrote down its PP&E by 50%, book value would drop to ~$40/share — still above the current price.
Current Ratio
Quick Ratio
Cash Ratio
Debt/Equity
The balance sheet is a fortress. Current ratio of 5.4× with zero debt provides maximum financial flexibility during the downcycle.
Valuation — Now vs History
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LINE 2: ... year, 7.8 as pe, 1.03 as ps, 2.85 as ev_ebitda order by year union all
^
LINE 2: ... year, 7.8 as pe, 1.03 as ps, 2.85 as ev_ebitda order by year union all
^Traditional valuation metrics break down when earnings are negative. P/S is the only viable ratio: at 3.0× FY2025 revenue, DAQO looks expensive — but FY2025 revenue is cyclically depressed at under 15% of peak. On normalized revenue of $2-3B (mid-cycle utilization at mid-cycle prices), P/S would be 0.7-1.0×.
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LINE 2: ... SELECT * FROM (select 2019 as year, 1.26 as pb order by year union all
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LINE 2: ... SELECT * FROM (select 2019 as year, 1.26 as pb order by year union all
^P/B is the anchor valuation metric here. At 0.45×, DAQO trades at the widest discount to book since the 2012 bust. The 5-year average P/B is ~1.4×. Reversion to even 0.8× book would imply $52/share — 76% upside from current levels.
Current P/B
5-Yr Avg P/B
Price at 0.8× Book
Peer Comparison
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LINE 2: ..., -25.6 as net_mg, -3.7 as roe, 0.0 as debt_eq order by ticker union all
^
LINE 2: ..., -25.6 as net_mg, -3.7 as roe, 0.0 as debt_eq order by ticker union all
^DAQO's P/B discount vs. Tongwei (1.2×) reflects the market's penalty for pure-play polysilicon exposure vs. Tongwei's vertical integration into solar cells. Vs. Xinte (0.4×), DAQO trades at a small premium, likely justified by its larger cash buffer. Western producers (Wacker, OCI) trade at higher multiples because they're profitable on non-polysilicon segments.
Fair Value & Scenario
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LINE 2: ..., impairment, cash burn to $1B' as method order by scenario union all
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LINE 2: ..., impairment, cash burn to $1B' as method order by scenario union all
^The fair value range is wide because it depends entirely on the commodity cycle. At 0.55× book (base case), DAQO is worth ~$35 — 19% above current. The bull case assumes full cycle recovery and valuation at book, implying $65 and 120% upside. The bear case assumes continued losses erode $1B+ of cash before prices recover, justifying 0.3× impaired book.
The numbers confirm that DAQO is a financially healthy company in an unhealthy industry. The balance sheet is pristine and the cash burn rate is manageable. What the numbers contradict is the idea that current revenue or margins are indicative of anything — this is a deeply cyclical business at trough. Watch quarterly polysilicon ASP and industry utilization rates — the moment polysilicon stabilizes above $8/kg and utilization exceeds 60%, the earnings power of this $3.4B asset base will reassert itself.